黃金和白銀風暴前的平靜
The Calm Before the Gold and Silver Precious Metals Storm
The financial hurricane hit the world in 2008 destroying huge swaths of assets, real estate valuations, numerous banks and financial institutions. As the storm cleared, the Fed and central banks stepped in by flooding the world with money to supposedly assist in dealing with the damage while providing special programs to rid the banks of debris and garbage clogging up their businesses.
After trillions of dollars of so-called monetary assistance, the financial damage appears to be repaired giving the public a false sense of security that the storm has finally passed. Unfortunately, the world has only dealt with the first part of the storm and is now sitting in the eye of the financial cyclone.
Even though we now have the additional drama from the U.S. Government shutdown, up until recently, the economy has been plugging right along. However, this was a much different story back in 2008 when the public and investors thought the world was coming to an end.
This can clearly be seen by the huge increased buying of Gold Eagles during 2008 & 2009:
Notice in 2007, total Gold Eagle sales were only 198,500 oz, but after the banking and housing collapse in 2008, buying more than quadrupled to 865,500 oz. Furthermore, when the broader stock markets continued to tank in 2009, Gold Eagle sales reached 1.4 million oz.
As the Fed and central banks continued to print, prop-up and backstop their respective fiat currencies and broader stock markets, the demand for gold continued to decline. In 2011, Gold Eagle sales slipped to 1 million oz. and down to only 753,000 oz. in 2012.
This is typical market psychology. A similar but more volatile trend took place during the millennium. Americans worried about Y2K purchased record amounts of Gold Eagles in 1998 (1,839,500 oz) and in 1999 (2,055,500 oz), but as the 2000 came and went without any major disruptions, demand nearly dried up to a pathetic 164,500 oz.
After the world escaped the collapse of the financial system with the help of the Fed & Central Bank Global QE, economic conditions in the U.S. started to wane in 2012. This can be seen by the decline of energy consumption in the country:
Here we can see that as energy consumption fell, so did the GDP. However, there was a disconnect that started in 2011 and increased significantly in 2012 as energy consumption declined, the GDP increased -- nothing like manipulated economic data to give the illusion of growth
This is part of the reason why the Fed announced QE3 in Sept of 2012... it had to add additional stimulus to keep the economy from imploding further. Unfortunately for the Fed, this huge increase in monetary printing would have had a direct impact on the precious metals pushing their prices to new record highs.
To keep the precious metals from exploding higher, price action was capped at the end of 2012 and then after several huge raids in 2013, market sentiment in gold and silver was severely eroded as demand in the West dried up.
In the chart below, we can see how orchestrated manipulation of the precious metals can impact market psychology.
During the first take-down in the price of gold, investors bought record Gold Eagles in April. However, as gold was hit again in June, buying slowed considerably and has been falling ever since.
The one thing that fiat monetary authorities understand, is market psychology. To destroy market sentiment in gold, a broad-based approach had to be implemented. With the help of its member banks and financial networks, investors now question if gold really is a safe haven anymore.
Of course this does not apply to the "1% Educated" precious metal investors as they realize you can't manipulate fundamentals forever, but it does impact the psychology of the 99% -- and this is the group that would ultimately push gold to highs never seen before.
This next chart shows just how desperate the Fed has become in taming the Wild Monetary Golden Beast:
The price of gold presently ($1,310) is actually lower than it was before the Fed started QE2 back at the end of 2010. Now, some analysts are saying that the reason why gold is under-performing is due to the fact that inflation is not as much of a threat as previously forecasted.
That is an interesting notion if we consider that the price of a barrel of West Texas Crude Oil increased from $85 in Nov. 2012 to a high of $110 recently (quite an inflationary trend) as gold declined from $1,750 to below $1,300 during the same time period. I find it simply ironic that the price of oil in the United States has risen nearly 30% in the past year as domestic production has increased to levels not seen for over 20 years.
The reason for the big increase in domestic oil production has to do with the so-called success of shale oil in the states. The hype by the oil industry is that shale oil will provide cheap and an abundant supply in the future. The United States is banking on shale oil to make the country.... energy independent.
Furthermore, I have stated that an increasing energy supply is vital in keeping a fiat monetary system alive. However, it doesn't look as if shale oil will be the savior for the country or the Dollar for that matter. U.S. oil production increased steadily since 1920. From 1930 to 1970, oil production increased an average of 1.87 million barrels a day (mbd) each decade.
However, shale oil has pushed domestic oil production up 2 mbd from July 2011 to July 2013, which is five times faster than its historic rate. Shale oil production is increasing at an exponential rate. The problem with any trends that increase exponentially, is that they decline is the same fashion. With all BOOMS... comes the inevitable BUST.
Shale oil should be used to assist the United States into transitioning to a more smaller, local and sustaining economy. Unfortunately, it is being utilized today just to keep the illusion of perpetual growth forever.
Many analysts including those from the Austrian School of Economics believe the U S. has trillions of barrels of oil resources, so there is no need to worry about energy shortages in the future. A large part of these supposed oil resources are found in geology called OIL SHALE. This should not be confused with shale oil (tight oil) that is being extracted from the Bakken and Eagle Ford in the U.S.
Oil shale is not even oil, but rather a form of kerogen shale that needs a great deal of energy to heat, extract and then refine. Several large oil companies have been working on making this resource commercial in the states. But, bad news just came out recently when Shell announced they were going to abandon their oil shale project:
The belief that technology can always overcome natural limits just took a big hit this week when Royal Dutch Shell PLC decided to shut down its pilot oil shale project in western Colorado after 31 years of experimentation. The ostensible reason is that the company has opportunities elsewhere. Shell says it wants to shift resources away from the intransigent rock and move it to profitable opportunities.
...Proponents of oil shale claimed in 1981 that it would be economical to process if oil were to reach $38 per barrel and stay there. The threshold price kept escalating along with the price of oil all the way up to $80 in a 2008 study by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management.
And, yet here we are. Brent Crude, the de facto world benchmark, hovers around $108 dollars. The average daily price for the past three years has remained above $100. In the face of these consistent record high prices, Shell is abandoning oil shale development. And, Shell isn't the only one. Another international major, Chevron Corp., pulled out of its project last year.
Large oil companies are getting out of the oil shale business at time when the world is experiencing the highest average oil prices. As the article stated, not only is Shell abandoning its oil shale project, Chevron pulled out if its project last year.
The reason why I include ENERGY-OIL in a precious metal article is that it is directly related to the future valuations of gold & silver even though investors don't see it that way. They rather focus on short-term information that reinforces their belief in the metals than longer term fundamentals that will guarantee much higher rewards.
The future energy situation is more important to the precious metal investors than are Comex inventory levels or sensational articles based on superficial information. The world is now passing out of the EYE OF THE STORM and back into the FINANCIAL TYPHOON.
Energy is the blood that allows the fiat monetary system to survive. Shale oil has been hyped by the industry and broadcasted by the media because it is the only thing left to keep the illusion of growth. Without energy growth the Dollar would surely die.
Even though the Fed and Central Banks have been able to manipulate, control and divert interest away from the precious metals presently, the rear of the PRECIOUS METAL HURRICANE is still approaching.
金融颶風襲擊，2008年全球資產，房地產估值，許多銀行和金融機構的破壞巨大的大片。由於風暴的清零，美聯儲和央行出面用金錢充斥的世界，同時提供特別方案，以擺脫碎片和垃圾堵塞了他們的業務的銀行理應協助處理損害。
萬億美元的所謂的貨幣援助後，會出現財務損失，給公眾一個虛假的安全感，風暴終於通過修復。不幸的是，世界上只有風暴的第一部分處理坐在金融氣旋的眼睛。
雖然我們現在有額外的戲劇從美國政府關閉，直到最近，經濟沿著正確的被堵漏。然而，這是一個非常不同的故事早在2008年時，公眾和投資者認為世界即將結束。
可以清楚地看到在2008年和2009年的巨大買盤增加黃金老鷹：
請注意，在2007年，總金鷹銷售只有198500盎司，但在2008年後，銀行和房屋倒塌，買翻了兩番多至865,500盎司。此外，在更廣泛的股市繼續坦克在2009年，金鷹銷售額達到1400000盎司。
由於美聯儲和央行繼續打印，扶植和支持他們各自的法定貨幣和更廣泛的股市，對黃金的需求持續下降。2011年，金鷹銷售額下滑至100萬盎司。上下只有753,000盎司。在2012年。
這是典型的市場心理。千年發生在一個類似但更不穩定的趨勢。美國人擔心Y2K購買大量黃金老鷹1998（1839500盎司）在1999年（2055500盎司），但2000年並沒有任何重大中斷，需求近於枯竭到可憐的164,500盎司。
世界躲過了金融體系的崩潰後，美聯儲及全球量化寬鬆政策，央行的幫助，在美國經濟狀況在2012年開始減少。這可以看出，在全國能源消耗的下降：
在這裡，我們可以看到，能耗下降，所以沒有國內生產總值。然而，有一個斷開，於2011年開始，並在2012年大幅增加能源消耗下降，國內生產總值增加了 - 沒有像操縱的經濟數據給增長的假象
這是一部分的原因，美聯儲宣布QE3在2012年9月，... 它不得不增加額外的刺激政策，以保持經濟進一步爆。不幸的是，對美聯儲來說，這將大幅增加，貨幣印刷有直接影響貴金屬價格推至新的紀錄高點。
爆炸較高，為了保持對貴金屬價格行動在2012年年底封頂後，然後在2013年，市場情緒在黃金和白銀的幾個巨大的空襲嚴重侵蝕西方需求乾涸。
在下面的圖表中，我們可以看到如何策劃操縱貴金屬可能會影響市場心理。
在第一次取下來的黃金價格，投資者購買了創紀錄黃金老鷹在4月。然而，黃金在6月再次被擊中，買大大放緩，並一直在下降自從。
有一件事，菲亞特貨幣當局的理解，是市場心理。摧毀黃金市場氣氛，一個具有廣泛基礎的方法得以實施。隨著其成員銀行和金融網絡的幫助下，投資者質疑，如果黃金真的是一個安全的避風港了。
當然，這並不適用於“1％教育”貴金屬投資者，因為他們意識到你不能永遠操縱基本面，但它確實影響了99％的心理- 這是集團，最終將推動金價高位從未見過的。
下圖顯示了美聯儲是多麼絕望已經成為馴服狂野的貨幣黃金野獸：
目前金（$ 1,310）的價格實際上是低於它是在2010年年底前美聯儲啟動QE2回。現在，一些分析師說，黃金之所以表現欠佳，是由於這樣的事實：通脹不是太大的威脅，如先前預測。
這是一個有趣的概念，如果我們認為，西得克薩斯原油油每桶價格增加了從2012年11月的85美元高$ 110近期（相當一個通脹趨勢）作為金下降，從$ 1,750到1,300美元以下在同一時期時期。我覺得它只是具有諷刺意味的是，在美國的石油價格已經上漲了近30％，在過去的一年，由於國內產量已增加至超過20年沒有見過的水平。
國內石油產量大幅度增長的原因做頁岩油在美國所謂的成功。由石油工業的炒作是頁岩油將提供廉價和豐富的未來供應。美國頁岩油，使國家銀行.... 能源獨立。
此外，我剛才說，增加能源供應中保持活著的法定貨幣系統是至關重要的。然而，它不看，如果頁岩油將是為國家或美元為此事的救星。自1920年以來，美國的石油產量穩步上升。從1930年到1970年，石油產量增加，平均每天187萬桶（MBD），每個十年。
然而，頁岩油推高國內石油產量增加2萬桶，從2011年7月至2013年7月，比其歷史悠久的速度快五倍。頁岩油的生產以指數速度增加， 任何趨勢成倍增加的問題，是他們拒絕以同樣的方式。 與所有BOOMS ... 來必然胸圍。
頁岩油，應使用以協助美國進入過渡到一個更小，本地和維持經濟。不幸的是，它正在利用今天剛永遠保持永續增長的假象。
包括從奧地利學派經濟學的許多分析家認為的U S.萬億萬桶的石油資源，所以沒有必要擔心在未來的能源短缺。這些所謂的石油資源的很大一部分被發現在地質學稱為油頁岩。這不應該被混淆與被抽取的Bakken和鷹福特在美國的頁岩油（緻密油）
油頁岩甚至沒有油，而是乾酪根頁岩，需要很大的能量以熱的形式，提取，然後細化。一些大型石油公司一直在努力使這個資源在美國的商業。但是，壞消息剛剛出來殼牌最近宣布，他們打算放棄他們的油頁岩項目：
技術總是可以克服自然限制的信念只是把一個很大的打擊，這一周時，荷蘭皇家殼牌公司決定關閉其先導油頁岩項目在西部科羅拉多經過31年的實驗。表面上的原因是，該公司有機會在其他地方。殼牌表示，希望把資源轉移遠離頑固的石頭，並將它移動到獲利的機會。
油頁岩的支持者聲稱在1981年，這將是經濟的進程，如果油價達到每桶38美元，並呆在那裡。價格門檻不斷升級，隨著石油價格的一路攀升至80美元在2008年的研究由美國土地管理局。
，但我們在這裡。布倫特原油，事實上的世界標杆，徘徊在$ 108美元。過去三年的平均每日價格一直保持在100美元上方。面對這些一致的價格屢創歷史新高，殼牌放棄油頁岩開發。而且，殼牌是不是唯一的一個。另一個大型國際，雪佛龍公司，掏出其項目的最後一年。
大型石油公司失控的油頁岩業務的時候，世界正經歷的最高平均油價 的文章指出，不光是殼牌放棄油頁岩項目，雪佛龍拉出如果其項目去年。
我之所以珍貴的金屬物品包括能源，石油是它直接關係到未來的黃金和白銀的估值即使投資者並不這樣看。他們相當注重短期的信息，以加強他們的信仰在較長期的基本面，這將保證高得多的報酬比金屬。
未來的能源形勢的貴金屬投資者更重要的是比COMEX庫存水平或膚淺的信息的基礎上煽情的文章。世界正在傳遞出風暴的眼睛和背部到財務颱風。
能源是允許菲亞特貨幣體系生存的血液。頁岩油行業已經大肆宣傳，廣播媒體，因為它是唯一留下來保持經濟增長的假象。沒有能源增長，美元肯定會死。
儘管美聯儲和中央銀行已經能夠操縱，控制和轉移利息從目前的貴金屬，貴金屬颶風後部仍接近。
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